Neal Huntington wagered at least $27 million of the Pirates' money on his belief that Josh Harrison will maintain his value as a regular player for at least three more seasons.
This also comes with side bets that prospects Josh Bell and Alen Hanson will be ready to step in as low-cost replacements for Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker within two years.
That's the way things have to be done these days. Clubs are always looking for pre-emptive contracts that will work out as well as the one the Pirates have with Andrew McCutchen.
McCutchen is being paid $10 million this season. His contract tops out at $14 million in 2017, with a team option for an additional year at $14.75 million. That's sweet money in the real world, but it's a pittance compared to the $25 million the Phillies are paying Ryan Howard this season, much to their regret. Howard is 35. The Phillies also owe him $25 million next year before they get to the point where they can buy out his last year for $10 million rather than the $23 million he's supposed to get. They'll have a party when that day arrives.
You can hit big on a long-term contract, and you can miss badly, too.
The Pirates know that. Huntington gave Ian Snell a three-year extension in 2008, buying out his last two years of arbitration eligibility and his first year of free agency. Had the option year for 2012 kicked in, Snell would have been paid $9.25 million.
Instead, Snell was out of baseball that year. He resurfaced a year later in an independent league, which appears to be the last time he pitched.
Long before Huntington arrived, Cam Bonifay cooked up a six-year, $60 million deal for Jason Kendall in November, 2000. Both sides wound up regretting that one. By the time it reached the final year with a $13 million salary, the Pirates were kicking in money for Kendall to play for Oakland.
The Pirates were ahead of the curve when it came to the idea of securing promising young players. They had second baseman Johnny Ray and shortstop Dale Berra under multi-year contracts in the 1980s.
When Dave Parker was approaching free agency in 1979, the perception was twofold: He was the best player in baseball, and there was little chance the Pirates could keep him.
But the Galbreaths dug deep for a precedent-setting five-year, $7.5 million contract that seemingly gave them the prime years of Parker's career. Instead, his production declined significantly, and Parker never finished in the top 20 of MVP voting in his remaining seasons with the Pirates. By the time Parker righted his career, he was playing for the Reds.
You pay your money, and you take your chances. Jose Tabata makes $4 million this season to play at Class AAA. He isn't good enough to make the Pirates, and there's no trade market for him. The Pirates still owe him $4.5 million for next season before they can write a check for $750,000 to buy out the last three years of his lamentable contract.
Will Harrison's deal turn out to be as reasonable as McCutchen's, or will it be as regrettable as Tabata's? That's the Pirates' $27 million gamble.
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--AGING GRACEFULLY
Monday marks the beginning of the 15th season at PNC Park.
Three Rivers Stadium was demolished after 30 full baseball seasons. Does this mean we're approaching the halfway point in PNC Park's life span?
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--MOVING ON?
Rumors persist that Ryan Maguire, program director at 93.7 The Fan (KDKA-FM) since Nov., 2012, will soon be promoted to another spot within the CBS chain.
Some interesting candidates are lining up in case Maguire does leave.
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--NOBODY'S SAFE
There's a perception that the Penguins won't make a coaching change because they're already paying Dan Bylsma to sit at home.
Don't be so sure about that. If Mario Lemieux thinks the coaching is a problem, a change will be made.
GM Jim Rutherford was handcuffed to some degree by contracts he inherited, but the late-season salary cap issues still don't reflect well on him.
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--'DO OVER
Andrew McCutchen's dreadlocks are gone and Troy Polamalu has retired.
Big hair in Pittsburgh is now apparently confined to bridal parties.
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