Let's not overcook this (phrase on loan from the Clint Hurdle Collection).
Here's why the Pirates are going home instead of to the playoffs:
Their No. 1 and 2 starting pitchers failed, and two of their middle of the order hitters did likewise.
You can point fingers in a lot of directions, but aim them primarily at Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Andrew McCutchen and Jung Ho Kang.
Success in baseball starts with starting pitching, and that starts with the top of the rotation. When the top two starters regress as badly as Cole and Liriano did, it becomes the hot mess that unfolded all season.
As much as people want to castigate the Bermuda Triangle of Jon Niese/Jeff Locke/Ryan Vogelsong, things went completely awry when Cole and Liriano were unable to duplicate their 2015 success.
Cole won 12 fewer games, lost two more and pitched 92 fewer innings. His ERA increased from 2.60 to 3.88. His WHIP went from 1.091 to 1.440. Liriano had a 5.46 ERA and 1.169 WHIP when he was traded to Toronto on Aug. 1.
McCutchen's struggles were evident all season long. Fans went from insisting his contract should be extended to hoping he could be traded for anybody.
His power numbers will wind up being OK but they're a myth. His decline in batting average and on-base percentage are bad enough. Combine those numbers with his staggering 142 strikeouts and precipitous defensive decline, and he's far from the player who has been a consistent MVP candidate.
The case can also be made that Kang is a major contributor to this season's skid. He started late because of his offseason knee surgery, but did fine when he got back.
Then came the sexual assault investigation in Chicago in June, and Kang's production plummeted. He's recovered at the end of the season and, like McCutchen, he'll post power numbers that are deceptive. His late surge offers hope for next season, but that 98 at bat July-August stretch that included a .163 average and .540 OPS helped sink this season.
Did other things go wrong? Of course. When a team wins 20 fewer games, there are plenty of reasons.
But the biggest is the key players who fell well short of expectations.
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--KISS THEM GOODBYE
Locke is one of the players you won't see with the Pirates next season.
Every once in a while, a player explodes on Hurdle's personal "I've seen enough" chart, and he's gone.
Ronny Cedeno was the first. Charlie Morton was the most recent. Locke will join the club.
He made $3.025 million this season and will probably be in line for a raise to about $5 million next season. The Pirates aren't going to pay that for a middle reliever who exasperates the manager.
Others who won't be back are Vogelsong, Jared Hughes, Matt Joyce and Eric Fryer. Figure that free agents Ivan Nova and Sean Rodriguez will find greener grass elsewhere, too.
When it's all said and done, the Pirates will probably turn over about a third of the roster. And they should.
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--ID REQUIRED
Jargon changes all the time, so it becomes fashionable to talk about vertical passing games and shutdown corners.
But the trend to insist that a football team has to establish its identity is baffling.
Are the captains supposed to meet for the coin toss and say, "Possession game on offense, bend-but-don't-break on defense. Nice to meet you."
There was once a team that played in Three Rivers Stadium and changed its identity in middle of a stretch of four Super Bowls in six seasons.
The Steelers started with power running and stifling defense, then switched to highlight reel passing game and diminished defense.
Wonder if they had to file paperwork with the league on that?
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